Red Team Memorandum Provides ‘Out-of-the-Box,’ Thought Provoking Viewpoint on How North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un Might Die in 2022
(FAIRFAX, Va.) — NEWS: Blue Glacier Security & Intelligence LLC announced it has published a thought-provoking Red Team memorandum titled “What if Kim Jong Un Dies in 2022?” This “out-of-the-box” analytic approach offers a thought-provoking viewpoint after Kim’s recent, drastic weight loss and continued weapons tests.
The Red Team memorandum addresses how Kim might die in 2022, who might succeed him, and how that succession could unfold.
Blue Glacier’s Red Team memorandums are modeled after the Central Intelligence Agency’s Red Cell memorandums. This latest Blue Glacier effort follows the company’s prescient Red Team memo on the intersection of cybercrime, anti-vaccination militancy, and pandemic fatigue that was published in August (https://blueglacierllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Blue-Glacier-Red-Team-Memo_Cybercrime-Anti-Vax-July-30-2021.pdf).
Key takeaways from this Red Team memorandum include:
* Kim Jong Un’s father (Kim Jong Il), grandfather (Kim Il Sung), and half-brother (Kim Jong Nam) all had problems with heart disease. Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung both suffered from diabetes and stress and died of heart attacks. Kim Jong Un’s aunt (his father’s sister) reportedly also has heart problems.
* Kim Jong Un’s habits and family history of heart disease, diabetes, obesity, and nicotine addiction indicate significant health risks.
* Several real and perceived assassination attempts against Kim Jong Un and his father (some of these attempts are listed in the Red Team memo) likely inform Kim’s understanding of threats to his power.
* Kim Jong Un has probably selected a successor from within his family (the “Paektu bloodline”). However, Kim’s eldest son will be only 11 or 12 years old if Kim dies in 2022.
* Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong is likely being groomed to be regent for her nephew, rather than supreme leader, if Kim Jong Un does not live to oversee the transition himself.
* The 72-year-old Choe Ryong Hae (Kim Yo Jong’s father-in-law), president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly and also first vice-chairman of the State Affairs Commission, could be the elite who would most likely dare to question Kim Jong Un, or attempt to consolidate power and succeed Kim if the supreme leader dies in 2022, or even mount a coup.
“This Red Team effort reminds us to avoid tunnel vision on the Ukraine war,” notes K. Campbell, a principal at Blue Glacier. “Kim’s significant health risks, in addition to the constant threats of assassination and coups he faces, has implications for all of East Asia and beyond.”
View report (PDF) at: https://blueglacierllc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Blue-Glacier-Red-Team-Memo_What-if-KJU-Dies-in-2022_March-18-2022.pdf
About Blue Glacier Security & Intelligence LLC:
Blue Glacier is a military veteran-owned security and intelligence consultancy that specializes in all-hazards security risk assessments, business continuity and disaster preparedness planning, workplace violence training, executive protection, and geopolitical risk. Contact Blue Glacier at bluesupport@blueglacierllc.com or (703) 934-2034 / (202) 389-6200.
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